All posts by Andrew Carney

AFC, Buffalo Bills, NFL

Deconstructing the AFC East: The Buffalo Bills

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The Bills are looking for their first playoff appearance since the Music City Miracle in January 2000 (Think about that for a second) and the optimism is high in Western New York. They have a coach with enough gumption and bravado in Rex Ryan that wants to return Buffalo to the Jim Kelly/Thurman Thomas/Andre Reed days. After having the 5th ranked defense last year, the Bills will move to a 3-4 and try to create a “bully”. Should the Patriots be scared?

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Reasons why they should be:

The Bills defensive line is a scary quartet. Mario Williams is an incredible edge defender and is a very good pass rusher (14.5 sacks in 2014), Marcel Dareus is a dominant tackle is who is just as good at rushing the passer (10 sacks) as stopping the run. Kyle Williams is quietly a dominant run defender and a leader on the team and Jerry Hughes has come into his own as one of the most dangerous edge rushers in football. Stephon Gilmore is one the best shut down corners in football. On offense, Sammy Watkins had almost a 1000 yards as a rookie with shoddy QB play and the additions of RB LeSean McCoy and TE Charles Clay has gave the Bills more weapons than they’ve had in recent years. WR Robert Woods is a competent #2 wide out and Percy Harvin is one of the most dangerous gadget players in the game. He automatically gives them a dangerous returner and is a threat every time he touches the ball. If they get at least somewhat competent QB play, they should be one of the best teams not only in the AFC East, but in football.

Reasons why they shouldn’t:

The QB play. The trio of Matt Cassell, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor leaves a lot to be desired. Like the old adage says: if you have 2 QB’s, you have no QB’s. Well, the Bills have 3, so the adage still applies. Ryan has boasted a playbook that is 75% run. No team can survive doing that, no matter who is their running back. Even if you could do that, you have to have a great offensive line…which the Bills don’t have. With only one really good starter (LT Cordy Glenn is a stud) and an average/above average C in Eric Wood, the Bills are still trying to find the other 3 starters. They are banking on 32 year old Richie Incognito, who has been out of football for a year, to be their anchor inside (which is telling) and 5th year pro Kraig Urbik and rookie John Miller battling out for the RG spot. Seantrel Henderson and Cyrus Kouandjio are battling out for the RT spot and Henderson was one of the worst RT’s in league last year. Unless they can fix the offensive line, it won’t matter who’s at running back, quarterback or wide receiver, the team isn’t going anywhere.

It’s perplexing to change a defense that was so dominant last year, yet Buffalo has fallen for Ryan’s hubris and arrogance and is changing their defense. Their line backing corps leaves a lot to be desired. Nigel Bradham and Preston Brown will be their ILB’s and are solid, yet unspectacular. I don’t think that will be the problem more than the secondary. Aaron Williams is an average starter at SS and they moved Corey Graham, who was solid at CB to FS, which should make them competent, but who is starting opposite Gilmore? Leodis McKelvin is more of a nickel back at this point and rookie CB Ronald Darby/2nd year CB Ross Cockrell will battle for the other CB spot.

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What does all this mean? It means that for as much optimism there is, there are so plenty of concerns. Will they get a competent QB? Will the offensive line play better? Will the defense move to a 3-4 well enough? Can the defense carry the team to the playoffs? All these are viable questions that aren’t really going to be answered until the season starts. I think that the Pats have nothing to worry about when it comes to Buffalo as long as they are unsettled at QB and Rex Ryan continues to insist that running the ball is going to be what takes them to the next level. Could it work? Sure, but technically, it didn’t work with the Jets and it’s foolish to think that the Bills can do it with a lesser team than the Jets had when Rex took them to two back to back AFC Championship games. Initially, like in New York, the players will buy in early and then his personality will start rubbing guys the wrong way. Until they can prove that they not just run the ball, but throw it consistently, they will be an 8-8/9-7 team.

AFC, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, NFC, NFL

New England Patriots: Thoughts from the Packers game and Moving Forward

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Often times, we rush to conclusions after a loss and think Armageddon is coming and how this is going to be a bad year. To remember that so many people didn’t play against Green Bay, especially starters, is key. We have to take it for what it was and go forward. With New Orleans coming up, here are some things to watch for.

via boston.cbslocal.com
via boston.cbslocal.com

Jimmy Garrapolo had a decent 2nd half after he settled down and was better. I think he showed more good than bad. He wasn’t helped by his WR corps and offensive line (that in a minute), but he showed poise and made some great throws. He has a lot of work to do, but if he has to play, I’m sure McDaniels will do enough to get him ready. Seeing how he plays against an aggressive blitzing package that Rob Ryan likes to employ should see if he learned from the Packers game.

csnne.com
csnne.com

To say that Josh Boyce’s game was a nightmare is an understatement. He seemed disconnected and didn’t fight for any balls. It’s a mild surprise he hasn’t been released yet, but his deep speed might keep him around for a few more weeks. Chris Harper and Jonathan Krause were by far the most impressive WR’s in the game and along with Brandon Gibson, will be vying for that 5th WR spot on the roster behind Edelman, LaFell, Amendola and Dobson. Either way, their presense on the practice squad is almost assured.

The offensive line was a sieve, allowing 7 sacks and countless pressures. Moving Chris Barker to LT made little sense as he was consistently dominated. Like Garrapolo’s play, you can’t judge the whole line by its backups. Shaq Mason had a great block on a pull that sprung Jonas Gray’s 55 yard TD run, but he struggled in pass blocking. David Andrews was surprisingly solid at C and G and could be a keeper going forward. I remember when Ryan Wendell was stuck on the inactive list/practice squad for a few years before he was ready to contribute. Andrews could be a similar story.

Even with the injuries to Rufus Johnson and Trey Flowers being unknown at this point, their play is indicative of how the defense will be this year. They are taking a similar modus operandi of the Giants and having an incredibly aggressive pass rush to make up for an average secondary. Even though the secondary played very well at times, there is a lot of inexperience there. Knowing that Belichick and Patricia will coach them up eases the worry.

The negative of the defense was their run defense, but seeing that Branch and Siliga didn’t play in the middle might be responsible for that. But the missed tackles, especially by Cameron Gordon on the edge was frustrating. Jonathan Freeny had a rough first quarter but seemed to settle down. Seeing how well the DT’s and the LB’s hold up against the new aggressive Saints O Line and running attack could be indicative of how well the Pats can be run on. In spite of all the questions, this defense will be much more aggressive this year than last year and that could be a very good thing.

To remember that the preseason are glorified practices is very important. This is the team figuring out roster moves and experimenting with different plays on both sides of the ball. The game showed that the Pats are going to be chippy and aggressive and won’t back down from a fight. With most people signaling the end of the Pats dominance of the AFC East with the moves the Jets, Bills and Dolphins made, this shows that they aren’t going down without a fight.

NFL

New England Patriots: Tyler Gaffney and other thoughts.

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Image: nepatriotsdraft.com

The injury to Tyler Gaffney that puts him on the Waived/Injured list most likely ends his Patriot career before it began. Two consecutive season injuries means two things: Jonas Gray will probably be the Week One starter and that the Pats will continue to retool this position as preseason goes on. A guy to think about: Knowshon Moreno. McDaniels drafted him in Denver and he really showed a lot of promise for the Broncos when they made their Super Bowl run. The one thing he does extremely well is pass protection. If this happens, I wouldn’t be shocked.

The trade for Ryan Groy shows that they aren’t pleased with the depth along the offensive line. Groy is big (6’5, 320) and has had played both tackle and guard positions during his time in Madison. He showed as a powerful run blocker and could be a valuable reserve going forward. He had a 4th/5th round grade coming out last year, so the kid has talent. Giving up Matt Wells shows that they are willing to give up a 6th rounder this early for depth. Could be telling for both Wells and Groy as well as the injury to Wendell.

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Signing Ryan Lindley isn’t necessarily something that is bad. Garropollo will get most, if not all, reps going forward and Lindley is someone who will be 4th Quarter Fodder for the foreseeable future. Although, if he made it through all of preseason, it would be a shocker. I think if Brady gets suspended, they might look at more capable backups to Garropollo. Not to bring up the connection again, but Kyle Orton might be someone to bring out of retirement for a cushy job where he can sit and fill in if Jimmy gets hurt or struggles mightily. He’s only 33 and was competent enough in Buffalo last year (Of course he wasn’t good last year, but Buffalo’s problems extended far past Orton). Either way, they’re going all in on Jimmy this game or I expect him to play as much as he humanly can while we figure out what Brady is going to do. Also, they could bring back Flynn if his hamstring is better.

I expect a different philosophy involving the secondary this year. The press corner will be given up for more of a zone look. Butler and Ryan are looking like the starters, with Robert McClain manning the slot. It will be interesting to see how much this trio will play against Green Bay, but I can see more Darryl Roberts and Jimmy Jean in there. Belichick isn’t afraid to play a rookie early and often and has had obvious success (Butler and Randall Gay comes to mind). Keep an eye out on the secondary and how they play. That can be indicative of what the season will hold defensively.

AFC, New England Patriots, NFL

New England Patriots: Players to watch heading into the Packers Game

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Training Camp has begun and with it, comes the injuries. As of August 8th, 24 out of the 90 players on the roster are missing practice due to health/rehab issues. So, with that, we get to see more unknown players get more reps and show why they should wear a Patriots uniform come September. Here are some players to keep an eye on as the Packers game approaches on the 12th.

RBs Jonas Gray and Tyler Gaffney: With incumbent RB LaGarrette Blount spraining his MCL and missing Game 1 against Pittsburgh with a suspension, the backup running back position is something that really needs more attention. Gray had that 4 TD game against Indianapolis last year and did nothing else and Gaffney was hurt all last year. Seeing that James White, Dion Lewis and Travaris Cadet are battling for the “Vereen” Role, we need to figure out who can be the road grater for whomever is playing Quarterback. Both Gray and Gaffney are likely fighting for one roster spot, so this is something to look for.

TE Jake Bequette: As Bequette pretty much washed out as a defensive end, the former 3rd round pick was moved to TE this offseason and has been a pleasant surprise in camp. He’s been stretching the field and catching the ball well. With this size (6’5, 275) and quickness (4.07 shuttle and 6.90 three cone drill at his Pro Day in 2013), he could be an intriguing player to watch. Obviously, he is still a big project, but definitely someone to keep an eye on.

G/C Josh Kline: One of the biggest areas of uncertainty is at Guard. With rookies Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason starting together the other day, you still have the void left by not resigning Dan Connolly (and then his subsequent retirement). Kline is a guy who has appeared in 21 games, starting 6 starts (one in the AFC Championship against Indianapolis) since joining the Patriots as an undrafted free agent out of Kent State in 2013. He has the ability to play all interior spots, and could be a surprise starter at one of the guard spots if he plays well enough. With Ryan Wendell on the PUP, Kline will see more reps and could come out ahead as a starter or top reserve.

DE/OLB Eric Martin: After bouncing around the Saints and Browns rosters in 2013 and 2014, Martin signed to the Pats Practice Squad last year. At 6’2, 250, he ran a 4.53 at his Nebraska Pro Day in 2013. He has raised some eye brows with his pass rush. He could make noise as Dane Fletcher and Chris White are on the PUP as a good special teamer/backup pass rusher. Keep an eye out on how he does with the pads on.

S Tavon Wilson and Jordan Richards: Although the attention has been on the corner back (and rightfully so), the attention needs to be on how well these two have played as of late. Both are getting a lot of playing time and surprisingly enough, Wilson has been a better player. Will he remove his borderline bust status as a 2nd rounder? We’ll see, but it’s an encouraging sign. With that being said, hearing good things about Richards makes it interesting to see if guys like Duron Harmon and Nate Ebner get put on notice with their play.

AFC, New England Patriots, NFL

Patriots: 5 Training Camp Moves the Patriots Should Make

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patriots.com
patriots.com

As training camp creeps closer, you can see the long days of summer start to wane and autumn is on the horizon. With that, the much maligned New England Patriots start their defense of their much earned, yet much (unjustly) scrutinized title defense. With 90 players on the team, coaches and GM’s are trying to decide who makes the cut and who doesn’t. After observing the first few days of camp, these thoughts about shaping the roster come to mind. Although they might seem drastic, I believe it makes the most sense to make the best Patriots roster available.

  1. Patriots trade G/T Jordan Devey to the San Diego Chargers for RB Danny Woodhead. With RB James White trying to step up in departed RB Shane Vereen’s shoes, the results so far have left some to be desired. Although he faces competition from veterans Dion Lewis, Travaris Cadet and Brandon Bolden, the importance of the “Passing Back” in this offense can’t be understated (see Vereen’s performance in the Super Bowl). Woodhead is 30 and carries a bigger contract (2.5 million), but he knows this offense and has Brady’s trust. He could be a stopgap for a year while White gets a little better and allows Bolden to return to his better suited Special Team role. Devey’s chances of making the team are slim to none with the additions of Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason. The Chargers need offensive line depth and Devy’s size (6’7, 315) can allow him to play both tackle and guard spots for San Diego. With Donald Brown, Brandon Oliver and Melvin Gordon all in the backfield with Phillip Rivers, Woodhead could be the odd man out. I see this as a win/win.
  2. Patriots sign G Evan Mathis. This is a no-brainer to many. He’s the best free agent available and gives the Pats a veteran leader in the place of Dan Connolly. With Ryan Wendell still hobbled and Jackson and Mason being rookies, Mathis can step in at either guard spot and dominate. Although he is 34, he was one of the best guards in football last year, if not the. Although he’s still in high demand from several teams, the appeal to play for a perennial playoff team might bring him up to the North East. If his asking price is too rich for the Pats, then they will pass. The depth inside beyond the rookies is Wendell, Josh Kline and Caylin Hauptmann. I’m not sure any of these guys can step up and be a steady performer if one or both of the rookies start to falter.
  3. Patriots trade DT Chris Jones to the Oakland Raiders for a 2016 6th round pick. With the free agent addition of DE/DT Jabaal Sheard and the 4 rookie Defensive Linemen added in the draft, the need for the pass rushing DT is pretty slim. With the loss of a 1st rounder due to Deflategate, it would be smart to unload players that have a slim chance of making the roster to needy teams. Even better unloading them to teams that will probably yield the Pats a higher pick in the said round. The lack of DL depth in Oakland is troublesome and Jones could provide a better interior pass rush than Stacy McGee or Dan Williams, the current two Defensive Tackle starters. Jones had 6 sacks in 2013 (3 in 2014) as a sub defensive tackle and can provide more depth.
  4. Patriots trade S Duron Harmon to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a conditional 2016 5th round pick and 2017 conditional 7th round pick (both picks go up a round if playing time is met). See the trend? Harmon has a lot of talent that hasn’t seen the field much in the past two seasons. He’s a zone safety that has a skill set more similar to Devin McCourty. With Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson both playing better as of late, Harmon could take the spot for another position of need (or in Belichicks case, another linebacker or running back). With one year remaining on his deal, they might hold onto him for another year. But the fact that he isn’t an impending free agent could be reason to get more compensation. Getting this compensation for Harmon is a mutual win/win and Tampa has been a favorable trade partner in recent years (Mankins, Casillas). Harmon can compete for reps immediately at FS with Chris Conte (ugh) and Keith Tandy. This might be considered a high price for Harmon, but with his untapped potential and being around some of the best in New England, he could be a player Tampa can build around.
  5. Patriots sign DT/DE Red Bryant. Why add another defensive linemen? If you’re a Patriots fan, then you know that’s a redundant question. Bryant is massive (6’5, 325) and can play both defensive end and tackle. Although he isn’t much of a pass rusher (4.5 sacks in the past 7 seasons), he’s very stout against the run and could be an upgrade over former teammate Alan Branch. At 31, he’s not going to demand a long term deal and could be a nice veteran leader across the line that lost its biggest voice with the departure of Vince Wilfork.