Houston Texans, New England Patriots, NFL

New England Patriots: Forget Gronk, Who Is This Leonard Johnson Guy?

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Let me start by saying it was great to see Rob Gronkowski back on the field. There’s no doubt he made a big difference in the Patriot offense as they destroyed the Houston Texans 27-6 on Sunday Night Football. The win & Miami’s Monday night loss to the Giants gave New England the AFC East Division title once again.

Tom Brady
Tom Brady explains to the officials why the call should be against Houston (AP Photo/George Bridges)

Tom Brady was efficient (22/30, 255 yds, 2 TDs, 0 ints). Heck, he even helped the officials out with a call (see photo). James White continued to show promise, Danny Amendola was solid and, once again, Brandon LaFell had the drops (caught 5 of 8 passes)…but make no mistake, this game was…

All About The Defense One of 6 sacks as Brian Hoyer is brought down by Dominique Easley with help from Ninkovich. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

One of 6 sacks as Brian Hoyer is brought down by Dominique Easley with help from Ninkovich. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Yes, the offense put up 27 points against what was a surging Texan’s defense, but this was a game dominated by the Patriots D. There was never a time when you felt Houston could score enough points to win from their opening 3 and out to Tom Brady kneeling to kill the clock over the last 2 minutes.

Keshawn Martin (82) fumbles a punt during the second half (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Keshawn Martin (82) fumbles a punt during the second half (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Even when Keshawn Martin muffed a punt (this is beginning to become a habit) and Houston recovered the ball on the Patriots 22 with 10:32 left in the 3rd quarter there was no concern. New England was up 20-6 at the time and, despite their recent troubles with 14 point leads, you just knew this team would not blow another double digit lead.

Obviously Houston Coach Bill O’Brien had no confidence in his team’s ability to move the ball long distances when he ignored the opportunity for a chip-shot field goal and went for it on 4th and 4 at the Pats’ 15 yard line. An incomplete pass from Brian Hoyer to Nate Washington, who was covered by Leonard Johnson, and the D had done it again.

It’s easy to question the decision to chase points that early in the game, and I have to confess I did. The game was within reach and putting any points on the board would have given the Texans a lift with most of the second half still to play. He proved to be right though, as that was the last time Houston had an opportunity to score.

So, Who Is Leonard Johnson

Leonard Johnson, a  previously unknown cornerback, played 42 snaps (courtesy of Mike Reiss) and had a solid game as the #3 CB behind Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan.  The Texans were 0-3 throwing in his direction and he had one of the better break-ups in the game. Johnson  joined the team this week after being released by Tampa, and Bill Belichick jumped at the chance to bring him in and sign him to a 2-year contract.

Belichick is slow to give praise to any player, let alone one who had just joined the team, but he had this to say about the 4th year undrafted free agent:

“He worked really hard this week,” “It was a long week, a lot of extra work, a lot of extra meetings, some good competitive time on the practice field. Got to give him a lot of credit — he came in, learned and his teammates embraced it … .”

As the year started everyone had concerns about the Patriots’ secondary, but, to the surprise of all, it has been pretty solid through the first 13 games. Butler has had some great and some not-so-great games, Logan Ryan has grown into a sold #2 and now it looks like (I know, it was just one game) Johnson brought the final piece to the puzzle.

It’s Nice To Be Back On Top

Everything fell into place on this Sunday as the Patriots went from the #3 AFC seed back to #1, aided by Cincinnati and Denver losses. Once again they have control of keeping an important bye-week in the play-offs and home field advantage throughout. With 3 games left (Titans at Gillette next week, J-E-T-S and Dolphins on the road) they could, and should, finish with another 14 win season and a healthier team when they play the real games.

Game Notes:

It wasn’t all good news though, as the injuries continue to mount.

LeGarrette Blount was on his way to a big game before injuring his hip early (99 J.J. Watt) (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
LeGarrette Blount was on his way to a big game before injuring his hip early (99 J.J. Watt) (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

LeGarrette Blount (Hip), Devin McCourty (Ankle), Dominique Easley (Thigh) and Jonathan Freeny (Hand) had all left the field with injuries by the end of the game.

Blount is walking with the aid of crutches and is reportedly out for the season, Freeney has a cast on his hand and McCourty has a high ankle sprain. Easley was put on season ending IR Tuesday

  •  Jerod Mayo had his best game of the season, leading the team with 7 tackles
  • Defensive Lineman Akiem Hicks,  acquired in a trade from the Saints for TE Michael Hoomanawanui , was outstanding with 2 of the Patriots 6 sacks and was credited with 6 tackles.
  • Jabaal Sheard seemed to spend the entire game in the Houston backfield, as he had 2 forced fumbles, 3 QB Hits, 2 sacks and 5 tackles
  • J.J. Watt was a non factor except for one late hit on Tom Brady long after he had released the ball
  • The Patriots clinched a playoff spot for the 17th time in the 22 years Robert Kraft has owned the team.
  • This is the 7th straight year the Pats have made it to the postseason
Rob Gronkowski's 10th TD catch (Photo: Patriots.com Keith Nordstrom)
Rob Gronkowski’s 10th TD catch (Photo: Patriots.com Keith Nordstrom)
  • Gronkowski notched his 10th touchdown, marking the fifth time he’s done that in his career. That’s the most 10-plus touchdown seasons for a tight end in history (From Paul Perillo)

The Patriots have already had their trap game (Philadelphia) so should not let up as they take on the hapless Titans in Foxborough this Sunday

Follow me on Twitter @SnowdonBob

AFC, NFC, NFL

Week 14 Picks

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For some reason, the Vikings were 10 point underdogs against the Cardinals last night. The Cardinals are one of the six true Super Bowl contenders in the league, but no one should be favored by that much on Thursday night. If we’ve learned anything from these Thursday night games, it’s that teams never play their best game, and they’re usually low scoring and sloppy. So, if any one is favored by double digits against a good team like the Vikings, take the points. On to Week 14.

EAGLES (Even) over Bills

Don’t look now, but the Eagles are tied at the top of the wretched NFC East, and they’re starting to look like the team everyone expected them to be. Sam Bradford is far from perfect, but he can make some throws. Chip Kelly has realized DeMarco Murray was a mistake, and Ryan Matthews is a better fit for this offense. The Eagles are the least dysfunctional team in the division, I think they end up winning it.

49ers (+2) over BROWNS

It is unbelievable the Browns are laying points. The 49ers have played pretty well since benching Kaepernick, and are coming off of a big win over the Bears. The Browns are putting Manziel back under center, it’s clear that there’s a ton of disconnect between Mike Pettine and his bosses. My prediction: the Browns end up with the number one pick and blow it like they do with all of their draft picks.

Lions (-3) over RAMS

The Lions are coming off of that horrible loss to the Packers last Thursday. As long as they’ve revived Jim Caldwell I think they should bounce back nicely. On second thought, they might do better if they just leave Caldwell on the sideline. Seriously, how do you cover the Hail Mary as poorly as they did last week? I’m still in disbelief. Moving on.

BUCCANEERS (-4.5) over Saints

The Saints are in free fall, and meanwhile the Bucs are starting to look dangerous. They’ve won three of their last four and are right in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race. Winston is starting to come into his own, and playing the Saints defense should be huge for him. Start him in any and all fantasy leagues.

JETS (-7) over Titans

The Jets offense is quietly one of the better ones in the league. It has it’s limitations, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has been making big throws late in games, his receiving core is loaded, and the running game is strong. Right now they’re in a tight AFC Wild Card race, I expect them to take care of business here.

Steelers (+2.5) over BENGALS

I’ve been saying this all season, the Steelers have the best offense in the league when healthy. Even without Le’Veon Bell their running game is strong. Big Ben struggled against the Bengals in the first game, but that was his first game back from injury and he likely wasn’t completely healthy. While the Bengals are a more complete team, the Steelers offense is humming right now and they have the better quarterback, I think they get a big one in Cincy.

Colts (Even) over JAGUARS

Everyone’s going to freak out after watching the Colts get humiliated on national television last week, but as I’ve already explained the Steeler’s offense is humming. The Colts haven’t lost a division game since Week 15 of the 2012 season. That’s 16 straight games. I don’t see that ending this week while they’re in a tight division race with the Texans.

CHIEFS (-10) over Chargers

The Chiefs are red hot right now. They lost Jamaal Charles and their running game got better, Alex Smith is throwing downfield for the first time in his career, Jeremy Maclin’s been revived from the dead and their defense is as strong as ever. Of course, they always seem to blow one of these games down the stretch, hopefully it’s not this one.

BEARS (-3.5) over Redskins

I’d say the Redskins offense was exposed last week, but everyone already knew that they didn’t have a great offense. Cousins is fine. He’s serviceable, but he’s not going to win you games. He refuses to push the ball down the field. The Bears had a bad loss last week, I think they’ll bounce back and beat a Redskins team coming off of a short week.

Falcons (+7.5) over PANTHERS

I don’t think the Panthers lose this one, but I expect it to be close. The Falcons haven’t looked good for a long time, but they’re still a talented team, and the Panthers have looked vulnerable recently. The defense has been good, but just got torn up by the Saints. The Falcons need Matt Ryan to regain his confidence, if he does this could be the week the streak ends for the Panthers.

RAVENS (+11.5) over Seahawks

I picked against the Seahawks last week and got totally burned. While I am respecting the Seahawks as a Super Bowl dark horse, I’m expecting a bit of a letdown this week flying all the way to Baltimore to play an early game. The Ravens have been hit hard with injuries, but they’ve still been competitive, and I expect them to cover at home.

BRONCOS (-6.5) over Raiders

The Raiders offense couldn’t do a thing against Oakland the first time they played, and the only reason they stayed in the game was because of Peyton Manning’s interceptions in the end zone. Now, the Brockweiler is in at quarterback. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s 6’8, incredibly handsome, and he’s a much better fit for this offense than 2015 Peyton Manning. In fact, he’s a much better fit for any offense than 2015 Peyton Manning, because 2015 Peyton Manning throws about four good passes a game.

PACKERS (-6.5) over Cowboys

The fact that the Cowboys are only one game out of a playoff spot is proof that the system needs changing. And for the record, I’d just like to say that living in Dallas and listening to Dallas radio trying to talk positively about this team and be happy that they’re 4-8 and still in the playoff picture is maddening. They should all be ashamed of themselves. Talk about the Mavericks, talk about the Stars, talk about the Rangers for all I care. These are actual good teams, but of course, the NFL is king, and it is the Cowboys. I hope they lose by 30.

Patriots (-3.5) over TEXANS

I love the Patriots only laying 3.5 against Houston. Seriously, despite giving up two special teams touchdowns and a pick six on the goal line, playing without Gronk, Edelman, or Lewis, they were still driving for a tying touchdown and probably would’ve gotten it had they not had four drops in a row. Also, apparently J.J. Watt broke his hand in practice this week. He’s still gonna play, but you know, BREAKING YOUR FREAKING HAND might hamper him a little bit. NFL guys continue to amaze me with their toughness.

Giants (-1) over DOLPHINS

This is an easy pick. The Dolphins are a horrible team. They’ve played two good games the entire season. The Giants have mismanaged the ends of games this year, but they have been a pretty good team. Had it not been for three horrible clock mismanagement fiascos, they’d be a respectable 8-4. This looks like an 8-4 team, they just can’t get out of their own way at times.

NFL Record Last Week: 12-4-0

NFL Record Overall: 93-95-6

College Football Record Last Week: 6-2-0

College Football Record Overall: 58-46-0

AFC, New England Patriots, NFC, NFL

NFL Week Fourteen Power Rankings

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I took two weeks off from writing the power rankings and coincidentally, it resulted in two Patriots losses. One of them I saw coming, the other, not so much. Brady is still one of the front runners for the league MVP, but the supporting cast around him resemble the zombies of The Walking Dead. Carolina is proving week in and week out they are the class of the league, and 16-0 is only four games away. What an amazing turnaround for a coach who was on the hot seat early in 2014. With only a handful of games left to play this year, it has the makings for a memorable regular season finish. Outside of the number one seed in the NFC, everything is up for grabs.

1) Carolina Panthers – 16-0 is a real possibility for this team.

2) Arizona Cardinals – Carson Palmer should be considered in the MVP conversation as well.

3) Cincinnati Bengals – Two huge bounce back games for the Bengals, but tougher tests loom ahead.

4) Denver Broncos – Brock resembles the dude from Twilight, but the Broncos are playing lights out defense.

5) New England Patriots – The Patriots need to get pointed in the right direction and stop with the mental mistakes.

6) Green Bay Packers – A Hail Mary finally went in favor of the Packers.

7) Seattle Seahawks – Watch out, the Seahawks are back to playing defense again.

8) Kansas City Chiefs – If the Chiefs stay healthy, they beat whichever division winner they play on wild card weekend.

9) Pittsburgh Steelers – As of today, they are my pick to win the AFC.

10) Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings being the talk of the NFC may have gone to their heads against Seattle.

11) New Jersey Jets – The Jets are winning games that would have been losses under Rex Ryan. They are playing disciplined on both sides of the ball.

12) Buffalo Bills – Rex found a way to puke on himself and pull out some late game heroics for the Bills Mafia.

13) Indianapolis Colts– Indianapolis was brought back down to reality by Pittsburgh.

14) Houston Texans – They may have the biggest d-bag in the league, but their defense is starting to live up to the preseason hype.

15) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa Bay could very well win a wild card in the NFC.

16) Atlanta Falcons – Flushhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

17) Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper may be hurt. He has regressed immensely since earlier in the season.

18) New Jersey Giants – The Giants had their chance to separate themselves in the NFC East. They didn’t.

19) Miami Dolphins – Miami will be a thorn in some teams side come the end of the year. Only if they are playing at home will this come to fruition though. Sadly they play New England week seventeen in Miami.

20) Philadelphia Eagles – Congrats to the Eagles for winning their Super Bowl in week thirteen.

21) Dallas Cowboys – I see a small, tiny sliver of hope in Dallas. Matt Cassell somehow went 11-5 in New England back in 2008. Think about that for a minute.

22) St. Louis Rams – The Rams need a quarterback and help at the safety position immediately.

23) New Orleans Saints – The Saints team isn’t packing it in, but need serious help on defense. I feel like we say that every year about that side of the ball though.

24) Washington Redskins – Sadly, the Redskins are still alive in the NFC East race.

25) San Francisco 49ers – “Hey Gabbert!” – Jon Gruden

26) Chicago Bears – Chicago should be over .500 right now.

27) Detroit Lions – Martha Ford rocking her shades in the owner’s box, being 90 years old is such a power move on her part.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars – Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson could very well be the best QB/WR tandem in the NFL right now. If not, they are definitely in the top five.

29) Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore will be healthy in 2016 with a VERY high draft pick.

30) Tennessee Titans – Tennessee is still a few years away from putting it all together. I do like what I see out of the young QB though.

31) San Diego Chargers– Maybe River should stick to impregnating his wife and rocking the bolo tie.

32) Cleveland Browns – Back by popular demand, it is Johnny Football.

New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles

New England Patriots:Moving On Without Any Excuses

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I am a Patriot fan and have been since the original Boston Patriots came into existence in 1960, so now you know I’m REALLY old. Hell, I remember when Elvis was still The King. Those following this now great franchise are as loyal as you will find anywhere, and more so than most.

Boston Patriots 1960

Now that I have that out there, I have to admit that I’m getting tired of the whining.  A team of mostly battered and bruised players at almost every position (I know, no player in the NFL is 100% healthy right now) in a meaningless game, an offensive line (and, yes it is offensive!) that can’t block, one of the youngest defenses in the NFL and a usually reliable group of special teamers gave away two games they should have won. As a result many (not all, but a lot) Patriot fans are ready to hang the officials, blame Roger (Mr. Integrity) Goodell and, worst of all, start doubting the team.

Hey, they are 10-2 and still control their destiny. New England is positioned to get a bye throughout the play-offs by winning their last 4 games against teams they should beat. Calm down…Sunday was about as bad as it will get. Bill Belichick said after their worst loss in Kansas City last year…It’s “on to Cincinnati” … this year it’s “on to Houston.”

Worst Loss Of The Belichick Era?

This was perhaps the worst loss of the Bill Belichick era. No, not in term of importance of the game, but just how bad the coaching was, lack of adjustments made and overall team performance. At least the loss to the Chiefs last year was against a decent team. Not the case Sunday. The Eagles were ready to cave when the Patriots went up 14-0. And then something happened that had occurred a few times early in the season.  The Pats decided they needed to pour it on and the world turned upside down (someone please explain to me what that means…but it seemed to fit here).

The Turning Point?

Tom E. Curran of CSNNE disagrees, but the game changed when the Patriots decided to try a play that rivals that used earlier this year by Indianapolis in their loss to this same Patriots team. Their blunder was a fake punt, our was a fake kick-off!

"Now let's see here. Wait, I know...let's try a drop-kick instead of kick-off. That should fool 'em" (Photo: AP /Charles Krupa)
“Damn this high tech stuff. Now let’s see here. Wait, I know…let’s try a drop-kick instead of kick-off. That should fool ’em” (Photo: AP /Charles Krupa)

At that time we mocked the Colt coaching staff for their ineptitude and were thankful our Patriots wouldn’t and couldn’t do anything that dumb. Well, guess what? Bill Belichick just took a step back into the crowded list of coaches who do really dumb things that look horrendous when they don’t work…which is usually the case (ergo the word dumb).

A few weeks back it was an onside kid that the Patriots were lucky to recover (again when up 14-0) and we all laughed and said…smart move. Go for the knock-out punch. Sunday the brain trust on the sideline decided to try…are you kidding me…a drop kick by Nate Ebner, and it was the beginning of the end.

Up 14-0 and having the Eagles ready to concede the game, the brilliant minds of New England’s football team gave them hope…and the ball in great field position. Before you could blink (well, maybe not that fast, but it sure seemed like it) the Eagles had tied the game 14-14.

The botched kick (BB said after the game it wasn’t an on-side kick) and a missed assignment that led to a blocked punt resulted in two TDs for an Eagle team that had been inept up to that point. If it wasn’t an on-side kick than was the attempt being made to give the Eagles a chance? Sorry, not buying it Bill.

Second Half Adjustment?

Throughout this season I have praised the Patriots for their ability to adjust on the fly. Well, for yesterday’s game, I take it back.  Any adjustments they made were either wrong, or just plain arrogant. It seemed like the strategy was, as in last week’s loss in Denver, let’s throw the ball long and let our fleet-footed (huh!) receivers outrun a poor Eagle secondary.

Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Connor Barwin (98) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady during the first half (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Connor Barwin (98) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady during the first half (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
  • Forget the fact that Brady was being hammered in the pocket and long passes take time to develop
  • Who cares if the Eagles are 26th in rushing defense, let’s fool them and pass-pass-pass…Brady threw the ball 56 times.

With the score knotted at 14-14 the Patriots continued to look like the Detroit Lions (that’s about the worst thing I could say), only worse. New England usually owns the second half, especially at Gillette Stadium. Shoot, when they get the kick to start things off after the break fans know something good is going to happen.

Forget that “score at the end of the half and starting the 2nd half” strategy that has worked all year. This time it was, let the Eagles score five (yes, 5) straight TDs without scoring a point and see if you can come back.

How The Eagles Scored

This isn’t pretty, so take a deep breath:

  1. Botched on side kick = TD. Coaching blunder
  2. Blocked punt = TD. Missed blocking assignment
  3. 99 Yard interception = TD. Brady throws into a crowd and looks really foolish trying to tackle Malcom Jenkins as he runs through the entire Patriot team (see featured photo)
  4. 83 yard punt return for Daryl Sproles = TD. Patriot special teams part the waters as he scrambles to the end zone.
  5. Bradford to Matthews for 10 yards = TD. Once again Tom Brady was intercepted on an up-for-grabs long pass intended for Brandon LaFell which was nowhere near him. Wrong route? Bad pass? Only the Patriots know, but bottom line another Eagle TD.

Every Eagle score was a result of a Patriot miscues. The only impressive offensive drive by Philadelphia was after Brady’s second interception. They took over with 2:10 left in the 3rd quarter and marched 80 yards, scoring with 11:14 left in the game to make it 35-14..

Garbage Time

Despite the big lead in the 4th quarter the Eagles still were ready to

Scott Chandler had a nice TD catch ( Photo: Keith Nordstrom Patriots.com)
Scott Chandler had a nice TD catch ( Photo: Keith Nordstrom Patriots.com)

give the game away (this is a terrible team folks). After the Pats went three and out following the Eagles final score, the defense stepped up and forced a Philadelphia punt with 7:54 left in the game. Brady marched the Patriots 71 yards, culminating with a Brady to Scott Chandler 14 yard TD as the clock ticked down to 5:33. 35-21 Eagles

This time the Patriots successfully executed a regular on-side kick and recovered the ball on their 45. Nine plays later Brady scored on a 1-yard run and it was 35-28 with 3:02 left.

Tom Brady scores on a quarterback sneak (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Tom Brady scores on a quarterback sneak (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Many in the Gillette Stadium crowd had already left, but those headed to the exits at this point stopped in their tracks and scampered back to their seats.

Another Brady Miracle Finish?

The Patriots 3rd on-side kick almost worked again, as Philadelphia muffed the kick, but the ball went out-of-bounds as the Eagles took over on the NE 46.

The Eagles again tried to give the game back when, after getting to the Patriots 25, Jamie Collins (he’s back) forced a fumble. It was all in the hands of the greatest QB in NFL history. Well, actually, it was in the hands of the receiving corps, who, after getting 1 first down, had 3 drops and the game was over. Eagles win 35-28.

Game Notes:

  • If my memory is correct the Patriots last drop kick was an extra point by Doug Flutie against the Dolphins in his last game in the NFL
  • James White was finally given a legitimate chance to make a
    James White (28) runs from Philadelphia Eagles linebackers Brandon Graham (55), Kiko Alonso (50), and safety Walter Thurmond (26) (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
    James White (28) runs from Philadelphia Eagles linebackers Brandon Graham (55), Kiko Alonso (50), and safety Walter Thurmond (26) (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

    difference and he took advantage of the opportunity with 10 receptions (on 13 targets) for 115 yards and a TD

  • The running game, when given a chance was effective. Despite just 13 carries, LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.2 yards per touch while bowling his way to 59 yards.
  • Danny Amendola made a difference with 7 receptions (13 targets) for 62 yards and a TD
  • It looked like Brandon LaFell cut off a long route on Brady’s 2nd interception. He ended up with 9 targets and a poor 4 receptions for a measly 24 yards…and he was the intended receiver on most of Brady’s long throws
  • Brady was sacked 4 times while the Patriots only got to Bradford once. Tom has already been sacked more times than he was all of last season
  • Scott Chandler had one of his better games (that’s not saying much) since joining the team with 4 receptions (7 targets) for 61 yards and a tough TD catch

    Jamie Collins a little late as Bradford releases while getting hit( Photo: Keith Nordstrom Patriots.com)
    Jamie Collins a little late as Bradford releases while getting hit( Photo: Keith Nordstrom Patriots.com)
  • Jamie Collins returned and led the team with 7 tackles
  • Of the Eagles 5 TDs, 1 was on defense and 2 were by special teams
  • Brady, pressured all game, was 29/56 for a deceptive 312 yards, 3 TDs, 2 int’s and  a rating of 71.4. Bradford, with little pressure went 14-24 for 121 yards, 2 TDs, 0 int’s and a 99.3 rating

 Moving On

Get the Philadelphia fiasco out of your head now. Don’t dwell on it, it will just give you a headache. It’s on to Houston to face the Texans, who are suddenly playing some very good football.

Early in the season this looked like a no brainer. When they were crushed by the Dolphins Patriot fans set them aside as a non-entity. That’s just not the case anymore.

Despite losing to the Bills yesterday 30-21 the Texans are in the hunt in the weak AFC South, tied with the Colts for the division lead at 6-6. In case you missed it, the game has been moved to Sunday Night.

Follow me on Twitter @SnowdonBob

AFC, NFC, NFL

Week 13 Picks

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While technically I picked the Thursday night game wrong last night, I’m definitely protesting on that one. Seriously, the game is over, then the stupid Detroit defender decides to tackle Aaron Rodgers high, gets a facemask penalty, and Rodgers throws a freaking 61-yard Hail Mary where he literally had a wide-open receiver in the end zone. Seriously, how is a guy as open as Richard Rodgers was on a Hail Mary? How does that make sense? Maybe the Lions should’ve put somebody in front of him. Just a thought. I would suggest it to Jim Caldwell, but he’s still standing on the sideline at Ford Field with his arms crossed and an uninspired look on his face. On to this week’s picks.

Jets (-2) over GIANTS

Four years ago the Giants won this game and used it to springboard them on a run that eventually ended with a Super Bowl victory, but I don’t see the same thing happening in 2015. It’s a bad matchup, as the Giants have a bunch of injuries to their offensive line, and the Jets have a scary defensive front that should get pressure on Eli all day long. The Jets offense is good when they have the lead, and they need this win in a competitive AFC wild card race.

Cardinals (-6) over RAMS

I don’t know why we ever fooled ourselves into thinking the Rams were a good team. They have no quarterback, their running game has fallen off a cliff, and they’ve had a lot of injuries to their once formidable offensive line. Meanwhile, I’m not putting too much stock into the Cardinals struggling in San Francisco last week. They were coming off of two big primetime wins, and the 49ers are a little frisky. The Cardinals have one of the most consistent offenses in the league, and their defense feasts on bad quarterbacks, they should win this one easily.

BUCCANEERS (Even) over Falcons

Speaking of teams that have fallen off a cliff…The Atlanta Falcons ladies and gentleman! 8 weeks ago the Falcons put up 48 points on the Houston Texans. Since then they’ve averaged less than 17 points a game, and the Texans have morphed into the ’85 Bears on defense. That’s probably the biggest what the f*** moment of the season looking back. The Bucs meanwhile are 5-6 and have been playing well recently. They’re at home, they’ve already beaten the Falcons earlier, and I’m taking them in this one.

VIKINGS (-1) over Seahawks

I do think the Seahawks are getting better, that was a big win over Pittsburgh last week and they’re offense is finally coming around. But at the same time, this still isn’t the team that went to back-to-back Super Bowls, and this game is suddenly a lot more important to the Vikings after the Rodgers-to-Rodgers Hail Mary last night. With no Jimmy Graham, the struggling Seattle offense has something else to figure out, and I expect them to have problems against a good Vikings defense.

BILLS (-3) over Texans

I really wanted to buy into the Texans hype, but I’ve restrained myself. There is no way they’re going into Buffalo in cold weather with Brian Hoyer and beating that defense. On the flip side this Texans defense is playing lights out, but the Bills have enough offensive playmakers to put up enough points, and Tyrod Taylor’s mobility should help combat that pass rush.

Ravens (+3.5) over DOLPHINS

I don’t love this pick, but the Dolphins should not be giving points to anyone. They’ve looked good in a total of two games this year. Yes, the Ravens have been gutted by injuries and are in perfect position to throw the season away and get a high draft pick, but they’re well-coached and are an extremely well-run organization. Just do yourself a favor and don’t bet on the Dolphins for anything.

Bengals (-9.5) over BROWNS

The Browns have put themselves in great position to draft Connor Cook. If they didn’t get that field goal blocked on purpose, then they should have. They’re 2-9, about to give Johnny Manziel to Jerry Jones for way too much, and they actually have some very talented players. The Bengals seem to have found their groove again after dropping the last two games, and I expect them to win this one easily.

Jaguars (+2.5) over TITANS

I gave the Jaguars some love last week and got burned, as they let Phillip Rivers throw four touchdowns to guys that were probably working at Subway or something the week before. So let me try again this week. The Jags did beat the Titans just a couple of weeks ago, and they have a much better offense. The Titans, meanwhile, are in cahoots with Chip Kelly. They’re throwing the season away while Kelly gets himself fired so he can coach Mariota again.

49ers (+7.5) over BEARS

Who would’ve thought at the beginning of the season that the Bears would be favored by this much over anyone? They’re playing pretty well recently, but still struggled offensively in Green Bay, and the 49ers have been pretty good defensively in recent weeks, and have just been a tough out overall. Blaine Gabbert isn’t horrible, and he’s looking more and more comfortable every week. I’ll take the 49ers to cover here.

Broncos (-3.5) over CHARGERS

I’m all in on The Brockweiler. The dude’s 6’8, strikingly handsome, and he can make some big time throws too. In fact, the Broncos are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with him at quarterback. They should probably lock Peyton Manning in a small closet until the end of the season, because he will force his way onto the field if he can. Meanwhile, as a Patriots fan, I really need Osweiler to struggle, and I heard Bill Simmons this week asking if there was a Kardashian he could date. So I asked my sister, and she said that Kendall is single, Kourtney is separated from her husband, and Khloe is killing Lamar Odom. If anybody can help me set any one of them up with Brock Osweiler, please do so. I don’t have a preference, I just need Brock distracted until Denver’s eliminated.

Chiefs (-3) over RAIDERS

The emergence of Brock Osweiler came at the perfect time for the Broncos, because the Chiefs are coming on strong. They have one of the best running games in the league, no matter who’s getting the carries, their defense is stifling, and Alex Smith is finally throwing down the field every now and then. However, because the Broncos came back last week, the Chiefs remain three games out of the division with five to go. They could very well win out (they play Oakland twice, the Chargers, Browns, and Ravens), but they’ll need the Broncos to lose three games, and the Broncos play the Chargers twice, as well as the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals.

Panthers (-7) over SAINTS

Anyone playing against Cam Newton in fantasy this week, my condolences. The Saints fired Rob Ryan but they didn’t fie any of the players on that defense, and it is probably the worst in the league. On the flip side, the Panthers defense is probably one of the best in the league, maybe the best. Panthers win this one going away.

Eagles (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

I was going to pick the Patriots, seeing as the Eagles are in free fall and Tom Brady is undefeated against the spread coming off of a loss. Then I thought about it and realized that Gronk’s out, Amendola is probably out, Blount is dead, Hightower and Jamie Collins are both questionable, and the Patriots most frequently run offensive play right now is a wheel route to Scott Chandler. I think they’ll win, but it just feels like a game where they jump out to a lead and then close the playbook, making sure Brady doesn’t get hurt. I’ll take the Pats to win, but the Eagles to cover.

STEELERS (-7) over Colts

The Steelers probably have the most explosive offense in the league, and the Colts are averaging barely over 20 points a game with Hasselbeck playing. I think the Steelers go crazy on offense after putting 30 on the Legion of Boom, and win this game going away.

Cowboys (+4) over REDSKINS

The Redskins are winning the NFC East! They control their own destiny. Tony Romo is out. The Cowboys looked horrible even when he did play last week. YOU LIKE THAT!? This is the classic Redskins game to blow. Something that has been overlooked is that the Cowboys have been in most of the games they’ve played without Romo, losing two games in overtime and three more by one score at the last second. For the Redskins, it’s a pretty simple formula. They’re 5-0 when Cousins doesn’t throw an interception, and 0-6 when he does. Take care of the ball Kirk, and you’ll be fine.

For college football fans or just degenerate gamblers who will bet on anything, I’m in a weekly college football pick ’em. Here’s my picks for this week: San Diego State (-6.5), Baylor (-21), Kansas State (+6.5), Houston (-7), Florida (+17), Stanford and Clemson straight up, Michigan State (-937.5) over Iowa.

NFL Record Last Week: 7-9-0

NFL Record Overall: 81-92-6

College Football Record Last Week: 3-5-0

College Football Record Overall: 52-44-0

 

AFC, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, NFC, NFL

Referee Issues Is Something All Fans Can Come Together On

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As a Patriots fan, the last significant loss I have had to deal with was November 30th, 2014 when the Patriots just fell short to the Aaron Rodgers led Packers in Green Bay. A full year later Patriots fans woke up on a Monday morning in unfamiliar circumstances. Their team lost a heartbreaker to the Denver Broncos in overtime, in a game where almost every significant player for the Patriots except for Tom Brady was injured at some point. The Patriots still managed to out play Denver for the vast majority of the game, but their biggest mistake came in the fourth quarter once Chris Harper fumbled a punt, putting Denver back in the game. What made things ultimately worse was the fact that the Patriots allowed the referees to play a role in the outcome of the game.

In the first three quarters of the game, the Patriots only had one penalty called against them, and that was an obvious face mask call on Tavon Wilson in the third quarter. They finished the game with five total penalties, four coming in the fourth quarter. The first significant call of the fourth quarter came in the drive right after Denver narrowed the score to 21-14. The Patriots were faced with a third and eleven play, but Tom Brady scrambled and found Keshawn Martin 51 yards down field. The play was called back however because of a holding call on Tre’ Jackson. It was without a doubt a hold, but Patriots fans gripe with the call is due to the fact that the officials were not calling it both ways. For example, on CJ Anderson’s 48-yard walk off touchdown Devin McCourty was blatantly held in the backfield. That would have made it third down and eleven from the Denver’s own 41 in sudden death over time. I would have liked the Patriots chances in that situation. The old adage in football is that you can call holding on every play, but if your going to go all in with holding calls make sure it’s a two-way street.

The next egregious penalty came while the Patriots had the ball up by four points with just over five minutes left to play. On a third and five play Brady hit Gronkowski for a ten-yard gain. Nevertheless, it was called back for offensive pass interference on Gronkowski. This was the tenth offensive pass interference called on the Patriots this season. That is first in the league, and the teams tied for second only have five calls against them. It is evident that opposing teams and officials are focusing squarely on a player such as Gronkowski because of his size, and he cannot get away with anything close to offensive interference.

Without a doubt, the worst call in this game and arguably the season so far came on the Broncos final possession of regulation. Denver drove the ball down the field and had it second and goal at the seven-yard line. That is when Alan Branch came up with the huge play bursting through the line and taking down Brock Osweiler for a loss of twelve yards, seemingly putting the Broncos is a third and nineteen situation. However, yet again the referees got in the way calling a, “ticky-tack” to say the least, holding call on Patrick Chung in the end zone on Demaryius Thomas, where Thomas clearly grabbed Chung’s face mask. The worst part is Brock didn’t even look in that direction and the ball wasn’t in the air. That call cost the Patriots the game. If it were third and goal from the 19, I would take the Patriots to hold Denver twice there. After that they would only need to take a knee and they would be on to 11-0.

Now, personally I have never been the person to blame officials for Patriots losses. I can’t think of a game where they truly out played their opponent and the were just beaten by the zebras. This game this past Sunday has made the best case thus far. Sure, the Patriots didn’t capitalize. There was questionable play calling down the stretch, Patrick Chung dropping an interception, and of course Chris Harper muffing the punt (he has since been released). They didn’t make some of the plays they could’ve made to win the game.

This refereeing issue does need to be solved. I’m sorry to all you Roger Goodell hating, conspiracy theorists Patriots fans, but this isn’t a result of the league having it out for the Patriots, it is just a league wide issue. What the commissioner should do is start having his zebras be held accountable like a player would be if they were to make a mistake. Until he does that, nothing will change and unfortunately the tipping point for officials would have to come in the playoffs when generally flags aren’t called. Until then playoff seeding’s and potential spots in the tournament will continue to be in jeopardy large in part due to the officials. It is one thing that fans of all team can come together on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC, New England Patriots, NFL

The Silver Linings Playbook:  Patriots Edition

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quarterback-tom-brady-of-the-new-england-patriots-reacts-to-a-play-picture-id499221526

With a score of 24-30, the 2015 New England Patriots’ chance at a perfect season came to a screeching halt in Denver. There were many reasons for this crushing and untimely loss.

The officiating was absolutely dreadful on both sides of the ball but seemed to really needle the Patriots with a bunch of phantom calls during crucial moments in the 4th quarter. Most notably, Rob Gronkowski was called for an outrageous offensive pass interference penalty, costing the Patriots a first down and a chance to keep an important drive alive. The play clock fiasco during the Bronco’s injury timeout during the final drive was as confusing as it was accurate. Communication between the officials to the coaches and the players was downright pitiful.

The defending Super Bowl Champions entered the game with several notable star players missing, specifically offensive weapons Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. Whereas both teams lost crucial players during the game, the losses of Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski seemed to derail the Patriots considerably. Losing Hightower opened up the run game for Denver, which on a night of snowy conditions was a godsend for their young Quarterback Brock Osweiler.  Gronkowski going out with a scary knee injury not only sucked the wind out of the Patriot’s collective sails but removed the final clutch superstar Tom Brady had left to throw to.

Finally and most importantly, Brock Osweiler played well in the 4th quarter, as did the entire Denver Broncos team. Although it is unpopular to say, the truth is given the cast and the set of circumstances The Denver Broncos made the most of their favorable circumstances. The tide turned drastically when Patriots’ rookie wide receiver Chris Harper fumbled the punt return and placed Denver in a scoring position. Did the Broncos take advantage of some slanted penalties and questionable play calls by the Patriots? Absolutely, and had the shoe been on the other foot Tom Brady and company would have done the same.

This game was a gut punch to Patriot Nation, leaving many fans irate that a winnable game and a perfect season had slipped away. Where it is true, the perfect season is no longer on the docket for the Patriots, this game is far more than just a sickening loss. In fact, this game told us more about the 2015 Patriots squad than the entire set of undefeated games played prior to it. With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner gone in free agency, NOBODY gave this Patriots defense, more importantly the secondary, much of a shot at even being average. Malcolm Butler, Devin McCourty and especially Logan Ryan did a great job for the most part buttoning up Denver’s receivers Sunday night. Sure, Butler missed a few costly plays against Sanders but Logan Ryan all but eliminated Demaryius Thomas. Knowing that Logan Ryan is someone that can be counted on to remove a superstar receiver like Thomas from a game cannot be understated. This defense is formidable and an incredible asset, warts and all.

The Patriots offense has seen better days this year with the losses of Edelman, Amendola and Dion leaving unproven talents such as Chris Harper, Keshawn Martin and complimentary pieces like Scott Chandler and Brandon Lafell as primary targets. Still, even with this rag tag grouping (with the help of star Tight End Rob Gronkowski), the Patriots still scored 24 points over the best defense in the league. In fact, until Harper’s untimely fumble, the Patriots held on to a two score lead for considerable length of time. Rob Gronkowski’s role on Sunday can’t be understated, yet he still only one man and this offense stepped up when most teams would have crumbled to pieces.  The Offensive line, far from perfect was better than the Buffalo game and for the most part fairly sturdy as well. In the end, it took overtime to stop Sunday night’s bruised and beaten New England Patriots and that was impressive.

new-england-patriots-patriots-tight-end-rob-gronkowski-pumps-his-fist-picture-id499274152

Ultimately, Julian Edelman should be back for the playoffs, both Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower and Danny Amendola will be back sooner than later, Rob Gronkowski’s injury was not nearly as bad as it looked, and the Patriots (in their current incarnation) are a tough as nails team which should survive their schedule and persevere until most of the pieces are back in the puzzle box. The Denver loss on Sunday night will not define this Patriots’ season anymore than an undefeated streak was necessary for a Super Bowl Championship.

NFL

5 Prospects to Keep an Eye On

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As the Patriots continue their onslaught of the regular season, the college football season enters its bowl season. That means we’re closer to getting into the meat of the draft season. Although the Pats don’t have their 1st round pick, there is still a lot of talent in the middle part of the draft. This draft looks a lot like the 2013 draft in the sense that there isn’t elite talents, but a lot of solid players. Here are ten players that Pats fan can look at for the pick in the 2nd round and beyond:

  1. RB James Conner – Pittsburgh. If he didn’t tear his MCL in the first game this season, Conner was a front runner for the Heisman. With that injury, teams are more apt to focus on the players that have a full year of game tape. At 6’2, 240 pounds, Conner is a load that can be the heir apparent to LaGarrette Blount. He isn’t fast, but he’s a plodder that can be had easily in the 2nd, but could be had in the 4th and later. Also, the Pats have had success with Pitt running backs in the past (Dion Lewis and Curtis Martin).
  2. G/T Denver Kirkland – Arkansas. Belichick likes amassing O Line depth and this year proves that you can never have too much depth at the position. Kirkland is massive (6’5, 340) that can play both guard and tackle and is nimble for a man his size. Versatility is a staple of all Patriots and Kirkland looks like he could be dominant at G at the next level.
  3. DE/OLB Jordan Jenkins – Georgia. Even with the drafting of Tre Flowers and Geno Grissom last year, Belichick is putting a premium on pass rushers. Jenkins isn’t an elite pass rusher coming out of Georgia (but neither was Hightower). But he was a captain, but Belichick loves collecting college captains and Jenkins is someone that, again, offers versatility. He can play OLB in a hybrid front but has the size (6’3, 255) to put his hand in the ground and rush the passer. Jenkins just looks like a Patriot.
  4. WR Leonte Carroo, Rutgers. You can’t have the draft process without the Pats looking at a Rutgers prospect. Although Carroo doesn’t have elite size (6’0, 205) and speed, he’s a precise route runner that can uses his athleticism and body control to be a threat both on the outside and in the slot. He would be great depth and be someone to keep an eye on as the process continues.
  5. CB William Jackson III, Houston. Jackson might be the best senior CB in the draft who has excellent size (6’1, 195) who is an aggressive DB who can use his elite speed as well to play with the best of them. Although it’s still early enough that Jackson will probably be drafted higher in the 2nd and maybe even the bottom part of the 1st if he has a great off season. But, he could fall due to other positions being coveted. He’s someone to keep an eye on.
AFC, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots

New England Patriots: Is Denver Tom Brady’s Achilles’ Heel?

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Is it possible the Denver Broncos are Tom Brady’s achilles’ heel? Going into Sunday night’s match-up there was only one team in the NFL TB has a losing record against.  It may be hard to believe, but the best QB in NFL history is 6-7 against the Broncos, 5-5 in the regular season and 1-2 in the playoffs.

So, here it is. Sunday night at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver and Super Tom still has something to prove…one more mountain to climb. The big difference over past years is ( are you ready for this?)  Brady may have a mediocre/poor game and the Patriots still should win. I know, Denver has a great defense…but this year so do the Patriots.

D-E-F-E-N-S-E

The Patriots have allowed the fewest points-per-game (18.2) in the NFL while the Broncos are 18th in scoring (22.2). When you realize how many of the points scored against New England’s defense were in garbage time,  after games were already decided, the figure is decidedly lower.

Meanwhile, the always tough Denver defense is just behind NE, allowing a measly 18.3 PPG of their own.  Yes, the Patriots are 2nd in scoring (32.3), but the days of rolling up points look to be over with a depletion of skill players on offense due to injuries. Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson will be among the missing (Dobson for the year) leaving Brady with limited options in the passing game. Sure, he still has Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell, but after that there are a bunch of question marks.

Home Field Advantage

Big Edge: Denver

1960 Patriots vs Broncos (Photo: sportspaperinfo.com
1960 Patriots vs Broncos (Photo: sportspaperinfo.com

The Patriots are just 9-19 in Denver since the two teams first met in 1960.  Ah yes, I remember it well, a 13-10 Denver win. (The long-term memory is fine, it’s the short-term that’s a killer).

Here’s a scary stat (courtesy of WEEI’s Chris Price): .842 — Including the postseason, that’s the winning percentage for the Broncos in their last 19 home games against the Patriots (since 1969). Denver is 16-3 in those games.

Yeah, I know. Different year, different players…but still, it has to be on Tom Brady’s mind. He absolutely hates to lose with a passion that is unequaled. I know everyone hates to lose, but he takes it to a new level.  Just a few weeks back he was pounding the ground in anguish when he was sacked and felt it was his fault…and the Patriots won that game easily!

The fire in Tom Brady after getting pulled down in 36-7 win over the Dolphins (photo: Darren Mccollester/Getty Images
The fire in Tom Brady after getting pulled down in 36-7 win over the Dolphins (photo: Darren McCollester/Getty Images

Why The Patriots Should Win

Despite the advantages the Broncos have, as listed above, the Patriots are still favored, although by a very slim margin…and the reasons are:

  • Tom Brady vs Brock Osweiler (No Brainer)

Brady showed his emotion repeatedly in last weeks win against the Bills, and his teammates would rather not face his wrath two weeks in a row.

“I was pretty agitated all night,” Brady told WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan Show, via Boston.com. “For three hours and 20 minutes, I was pretty agitated.”

James White had two TDs against the Bills despite limited touches (Photo: Fansided.com)
James White had two TDs against the Bills despite limited touches (Photo: Fansided.com)
  • More action from James White, who was clutch despite limited touches, in last week’s win over Buffalo. His snap count should increase with a reduction in touches by LeGarrette Blount.
  • The offensive line has to be better (couldn’t be any worse) as the walking wounded continue to return and the revolving door slows down. The Patriots have used 25 offensive line combinations this season, most in the NFL (Mike Reiss)
  • Bill Belichick vs Gary Kubiack (Another No Brainer)
  • Rob Gronkowski is due to have a breakout game. Denver now has Vernon Davis, who had his best game of the year last week, and Gronk won’t take kindly to being outplayed on national TV

Both teams are looking forward to this one. Here are a few pre-game quotes from the Bronco’s camp:

“It will be fun—Sunday Night Football, undefeated team coming in. It will be a lot of fun. It’s great playing against [Patriots QB] Tom [Brady], though. He’s a great competitor.”
– Broncos CB Aqib Talib

They’re really physical. Their defensive line—they’ve been causing a lot of chaos for quarterbacks. They’ve been getting to the quarterbacks. I think [Patriots DE] Chandler Jones  is over 10 sacks at this point in the year. I think they just play extremely hard. They know their scheme inside and out and they execute their scheme.”
– Broncos QB Brock Osweiler

Prediction

Patriots squeak out a tough win and go to 11-0

Patriots 21 Broncos 17

Follow me on twitter @SnowdonBob

 

 

 

 

 

AFC, NFC, NFL

Week 12 Picks

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I’m back, and I apologize to everyone who missed reading my weekly picks last week. I was really busy and experiencing some sort of hangover from having my best week, 9-5, the week before. I know all of you guys just muddle through your boring lives until you get the chance to escape them as you read my brilliant picks.

Ok, I’m sure you all found a way to fill the void in your lives, and thank you to Joey for filling in for me last week. And for the record, I did still make my own picks and went 5-9, so you’re welcome for not having to read those. Let’s get on to the Thanksgiving special.

Eagles (+2.5) over LIONS

I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. The Eagles seem like a team that shouldn’t be favored by more than three against anyone, and also shouldn’t be getting more than three points against anyone, while the Lions are a different team every week. However, the Chip Kelly offense could go bananas at any time, and though Bradford’s status is uncertain the running game has been better as of late. I’m taking the points but this is a major stay away.

Panthers (+1.5) over COWBOYS

I’m finally ready to start acknowledging the Panthers as legit. I still think the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC, but Carolina has one of the league’s best defenses, a powerful running game, and Cam Newton has absolutely turned a corner. This game is all of a sudden more fun with a healthy Cowboys team, but on a short week I’m going to take the better running game and the better defense in this one.

Bears (+8.5) over PACKERS

The Bears are a team that isn’t getting a lot of respect. The Packers line is always inflated because everybody loves to bet on them, but while they looked good last week it was the first time they looked good since Week 3. Cutler is having a good season, Forte and Jeffery could both be coming back, and the Bears defense is much improved. I look for the Bears to cover easily, and I think they could pull off the upset.

Raiders (-1.5) over TITANS

I’m not jumping ship on the Raiders after the last few games. The Titans defense is exactly what they need to get back on track, and their pass rush should give Mariota problems. The Raiders are simply a much better team than the Titans, and they’ve taken care of business against bad teams this year (with the exception of last week).

Bills (+6) over CHIEFS

This feels like a classic Andy Reid game to blow. The Chiefs are feeling good, they’ve won four games in a row in impressive fashion and trail the Broncos by three games in the division. This isn’t a must win but it feels like it is, and I fully expect them to be trailing by three with under two minutes to go and all three timeouts, and for Andy Reid to waste all three timeouts on one play where Charcandrick West runs out of bounds on a swing pass that gained three yards, and then Alex Smith tries to throw three more of those passes before they turn it over on downs.

COLTS (-3) over Buccaneers

The Bucs are a little frisky and Jameis is really coming into his own, but I expect them to come back down to earth a little bit against a Colts team that needs this game more. The Texans have all of a sudden made the AFC South interesting, but Indy got a big win in Atlanta last week, and are undefeated with Matt Hasselbeck starting. They need to win this game and be 6-5 when they possibly get Luck back next week. Seriously Andrew, my fantasy team needs you back, there’s a playoff berth on the line.

Giants (-2.5) over REDSKINS

The Giants are coming off of a bye, and the last time we saw them they all but beat the Patriots again. The Giants are 7-4 coming off of a bye under Tom Coughlin, and had won six straight off of byes until last year. The Redskins had a horrible showing last week, and that defense has major holes. I’ll take Eli and Odell to carve them up.

TEXANS (-3) over Saints

J.J. Watt is once again proving why he’s far and away the best defensive player in football, even if that can only take a team so far. It’s possible that he just swallows a quarterback whole in the upcoming weeks, and Drew Brees is definitely a candidate for that. The Saints defense is putrid, so even a struggling Texans offense should be able to put up points against them, but they’ll obviously win this game on defense.

Vikings (+1) over FALCONS

I don’t know what happened to the Falcons, but they’ve fallen off of a cliff. Since their hot offensive start they’ve lost four of five games and the one win was a 10-7 victory over the Titans. Devonta Freeman might not play, and the Vikings need to win. I expect them to bounce back after a bad loss to the Packers.

Rams (+8.5) over BENGALS

I’m still picking the Bengals to win, but I think the Rams keep it close. They’ve lost three straight but their defense has been good in most of them, and they’re only two games out of a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Bengals need to clean some stuff up, as they’ve struggled with consistency in their consecutive losses.

JAGUARS (-3.5) over Chargers

This might be the best bet of the week. The Jaguars have a real chance to win their division, and the team has a lot of confidence in Blake Bortles. Think about this, Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas, and T.J. Yeldon are all on fantasy rosters. And frankly, the Chargers aren’t a good team, and they’ll be flying across the country to play a 10 am pacific kickoff.

JETS (-3.5) over Dolphins

I know the Jets are scuffling, but the Dolphins are simply not a good team. They struggle to ever build momentum because they can’t capitalize off of their own success, and their defense tends to wear down at the end of games. The Jets are in a four-way tie for the last wild card spot and really need all the wins they can get, I think they take care of business at home.

Cardinals (-10) over 49ERS

I said this earlier, but I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NFC. They have the most balanced offense by far, and probably the best in the league besides the Patriots. Their defense is good situationally and they create a lot of turnovers, and the 49ers are a mess offensively.

Steelers (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS

We all need to stop giving the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt. Let me give you Seattle’s five wins this year: Jimmy Clausen and the Bears, 13-10 over the Lions thanks to a blown call, Matt Cassel’s Cowboys by a point in the last minute, and two wins over the 49ers. The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off of a bye and are as healthy as they’ve been on offense. This will be the funeral of the legion of boom. Scratch what I said about the Jaguars, this is the best bet of the week.

Patriots (-3) over THE BROCKWEILER

While the Patriots keep losing receivers, they’re getting their line mostly healthy, and they should look more like their offense from earlier in the year than Monday night. Give Rex Ryan credit, he always puts together a defensive gameplan that confuses Brady at the line of scrimmage, and you saw him not knowing who to throw to most of the time. That should change Sunday night, and even without Edelman and possibly Amendola, and the underrated Pats defense should give Brock Ossweiler and his limited running game problems. I’d also like to offer a hot take: Peyton Manning has played his last game as a Bronco, but he’ll try to come back with someone else next year and it’s going to be even more of an embarrassment. Peyton, if you’re reading this, know that you’ve had a wonderful career, you’re a top three and probably top two all-time quarterback. Let it go. You’re tarnishing you’re legacy.

BROWNS (-2.5) over Ravens

Rather than break down the worst Monday night game the World Wide Leader has gotten so far, I wanted to use this time to give my opinion on Johnny Manziel. Like most, I loved watching Manziel in college. I loved how every time I watched him play he did something I had never seen before, and he constantly made a mockery of SEC defenses. And like most, I’ve tried to give him the benefit of the doubt on a lot of his off-field escapades. But he’s done. There’s not a spot in this league for Johnny Manziel. He’s been giving opportunity after opportunity, and he refuses to grow up. In order to be a starting quarterback in the National Football League, you need to act like and adult, and Johnny never has, and from the looks of it never will, because he doesn’t understand. It’s a sad story, because he has all the talent in the world. But I applaud Mike Pettine on the decision he made.

For college football fans or just degenerate gamblers who will bet on anything, I’m in a weekly college football pick ’em. Here’s my picks for this week: Alabama (-13.5), Oklahoma (-7), Notre Dame (+2.5), Clemson (-17.5), Florida (+2), Nebraska, Michigan, and Baylor straight up.

NFL Record Last Week: 5-9-0

NFL Record Overall: 74-83-6

College Football Record Last Week: 5-3-0

College Football Record Overall: 49-39-0

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